Friday, August 16, 2013

The new Federal Electoral Boundaries on Vancouver Island will make it an important 2015 battleground

I thought it would be interesting for people to see what the past elections looked like with the new boundaries federally.   Victoria remains unchanged and the change to Saanich-Gulf Islands is small enough not to matter.

In the other five ridings, the new redistributed ones are on paper very competitive between the Conservatives and the NDP.   If the 2015 election is a close one these close seats on Vancouver Island will be very, very important to the NDP and Conservatives for who will form government.  All five of them have less than five percentage points between the winner and second place in 2011 and 2008.  

Vancouver Island North-Comox-Powell River
Party  2011          2008
CPC   23,481 46.02% 22,030 44.91%
NDP   21,306 41.75% 18,811 38.35%
Green  3,243  6.36%  4,280  8.73%
Libs   2,629  5.15%  3,691  7.52%

Courtenay-Alberni
Party  2011           2008
CPC   25,253 44.66% 24,007 44.94%
NDP   23,150 40.94% 19,179 35.91%
Green  3,891  6.88%  6,193 11.59%
Libs   3,773  6.67%  3,732  6.99%

Nanaimo-Ladymith
Party  2011            2008
NDP   25,707 44.97% 21,437 39.49%
CPC   23,259 40.59% 22,107 40.73%
Green  4,083  7.14%  5,816 10.71%
Libs   3,834  6.71%  4,675  8.61%

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford
Party   2011           2008
NDP    20,677 43.60% 16,311 37.10%
CPC    20,386 42.99% 17,751 40.37%
Green   3,442  7.26%  3,654  8.31%
Libs    2,763  5.83%  6,079 13.83%

Saanich-Juan de Fuca
Party   2011           2008
NDP    22,231 39.37% 11,306 21.60%
CPC    21,275 37.67% 17,391 33.23%
Green   7,242 12.82%  4,606  8.80%
Libs    5,482  9.71% 18,585 35.51%

Here is the record of close races on the Island in 2011 and 2008 with the current boundaries

In 2011 the close ridings (less than five percentage points between first and second) 
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca  0.63pp
Vancouver Island North 3.10pp

In 2008 the close ridings (less than five percentage points between first and second)
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 0.11 pp
Vancouver Island North 4.40pp
Saanich-Gulf Islands 4.07pp

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