New Federal Polls

In the last week we have seen new federal polls from Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, and EKOS.

Broadly the three polls give us the following:

• Conservatives - 35%
• Liberals - 26.5%
• NDP - 17.5%
• Bloc - 10%
• Greens - 9%

This is at best a marginal change from the last federal election 2008.  The biggest losers are the Conservatives, down from 37.6% in the last election.   Greens are up from 6.8%.

So what does it mean?   In the absence of something dramatic in an election, these results would indicate a parliament almost the same as the current one.

My prediction changes a bit from May and comes back closer to the 2008 election result.

• Conservatives - 36% - 138 seats (130-147)
• Liberals - 27% - 81 seats (78 - 94)
• NDP 17% - 35 seats (31 - 40)
• Bloc 10% - 51 seats (47-53)
• Greens 8% - 0 seats (0-1)

I can not see an election happening unless the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in polling for at least two months or the Conservatives poll over 38% for the same sort of time period.