Federal Election Poll in BC

Mustel released 500 person poll yesterday that was BC based.

• Conservatives - 42%
• Liberals - 25%
• NDP - 24%
• Greens - 9%

Overall the Conservatives, NDP and Greens are only marginally behind their 2008 election result.  The Liberals are up by a significant amount, but I suspect it may not help the Liberals much.

In 2008 the Liberal vote in BC did not evenly fall in the province.   15 of the top 50 drops in percentage of the vote of the party were in BC, this is 30% of them and BC only represents  11.7% of the ridings in the country.  Overall in 33 of 36 ridings the Liberal percentage of the vote went down.  

Two of the ridings were the percentage of the vote went up were Saanich Gulf Islands and Newton North Delta, one of which they won and the other they did better than ever.

In general the Liberals lost more support in ridings where they were running third than elsewhere.

What I expect to happen in this election is for the Liberal support to rise the most in the places where their vote was the lowest in 2008.  I do not expect them to make any gains.