I currently believe that all the seats will be retained by the party that won it in the last election. I am using what data I can get - past election results, past by-election turnouts, impact of candidates, riding level polls, current political scene, candidates, and local media.
Bourassa
Emmanuel Duborg Libs 10,000 46.5%
Stephanie Moraille NDP 5,000 23.3%
Daniel Duranleau Bloc 4,000 18.6%
Danny Polifroni Green 1,500 7.0%
Rida Mahmoud Cons 1,000 4.7%
Brandon Souris
Larry Maguire Cons 10,000 45.5%
Rolf Dinsdale Libs 7,500 34.1%
Cory Szczepanski NDP 3,150 14.3%
David Neufeld Green 1,250 5.7%
Frank Godon Libertarian 100 0.5%
Provencher
Ted Falk Cons 10,000 62.5%
Terry Hayward Libs 3,600 22.5%
Natalie Courcelles Beaudry NDP 1,600 10.0%
Janine Gibson Green 800 5.0%
Toronto Centre
Chrystia Freeland Libs 17,000 48.6%
Linda McQuaig NDP 11,350 32.4%
John Deverell Green 3,500 10.0%
Geoff Pollock Cons 3,000 8.6%
Dorian Baxter PC 75 0.2%
Leslie Bory Ind 75 0.2%
Overall
Liberals 38,100 40.3%
Conservatives 24,000 25.4%
NDP 21,100 22.3%
Green 7,050 7.5%
Bloc 4,000 4.2%
Others 250 0.3%
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