Monday, December 16, 2013

How the NDP/CCF has done in BC from 1956 to 2013

I have decided to create these tables because the results of the CCF/NDP do change over time.   I did not go back before 1956 because a different electoral system was used in 1952 and 1953 and you can not compare results to those elections in percentage terms.  

Ranked by margin of victory - NDP governments in bold
Election  Pct    Leader  Margin
  1972   39.59% Barrett   +8.43  29.07% Liberal and PC
  1991   40.71% Harcourt  +7.46  24.05% Social Credit
  1979   45.99% Barrett   -2.24 
  1996   39.45% Clark     -2.37  15.01% Reform and PDA
  2009   42.15% James     -3.67
  2013   39.71% Dix       -4.43
  1983   44.94% Barrett   -4.82
  2005   41.52% James     -4.82
  1960   32.73% Strachan  -6.10  27.62% Liberal and PC
  1986   42.60% Skelly    -6.72
  1975   39.16% Barrett  -10.09
  1966   33.62% Strachan -11.97  20.24% Liberal
  1969   33.92% Berger   -12.87  19.03% Liberal
  1963   27.80% Strachan -13.03  31.25% Liberal and PC
  1956   28.32% Strachan -17.52  21.77% Liberal
  2001   21.56% Dosanjh  -36.06
Purple is 1956-1969 - 5 elections
Red is 1972-1986 5 elections
Blue is 1991-2001 3 elections
Black is 2005-2013 3 elections

Ranked by percentage of the vote
Election  Pct    Leader  Margin
  1979   45.99% Barrett   -2.24 
  1983   44.94% Barrett   -4.82
  1986   42.60% Skelly    -6.72
  2009   42.15% James     -3.67
  2005   41.52% James     -4.82
  1991   40.71% Harcourt  +7.46
  2013   39.71% Dix       -4.43
  1972   39.59% Barrett   +8.43
  1996   39.45% Clark     -2.37 
  1975   39.16% Barrett  -10.09
  1969   33.92% Berger   -12.87
  1966   33.62% Strachan -11.97
  1960   32.73% Strachan  -6.10
  1956   28.32% Strachan -17.52
  1963   27.80% Strachan -13.03
  2001   21.56% Dosanjh  -36.06

The NDP of the 1950s and 1960s was no where close to threatening to win the elections.  They only broke 1/3 of the vote in 1969 and came no closer than -6.10 percentage points.   These five elections had a Liberal party that took around 20% of the vote and in two of them the PCs seriously tried.   WAC Bennett benefited from a strong third party in this era

The NDP of the 1970s and 1980s were much more successful for the NDP.   They won one election, and that by their largest margin of 8.43 percentage points in 1972 and in 1979 had their closest loss.  These five races had the elections becoming more and more two party races.  In 1972 the NDP and Socreds took 70.75%   but in the next four the two parties took between 88.41% and 94.70% of the vote.

1991 and 1996 see BC politics go back to having significant third parties

2005 to 2013 the elections have the main two parties take between 83.85% and 87.97% of the vote.  Not as high as during the peak of the two party era of the 70s and 80s, but higher than the multi party era of the 90s.  

So what will the next election bring?  

Post a Comment