Friday, September 12, 2008

Some Quick Polling Analysis

Over the last eight days we have 9 national polls to work with and here are how the numbers are shaping up:

  • Conservatives - ave 38.3% median 38%
  • Liberals - ave 26.9% median 26%
  • NDP - ave 16.1% -1.4 median 15%
  • Bloc - ave 8.1% median 9%
  • Greens - ave 9.0% median 9%
This puts the Greens at double their support from 2006. The Conservatives are up a healthy 2 percentage points while the Liberals are down 3.3 percentage points from 2006.

The Bloc numbers have been a bit more over the map, but seem to indicate that their vote is down by 25%.

The NDP have also been jumping around in the polls from a low of 13% to a high of 21%. At the moment they are polling down from the 2006 result by 1.4 percentage points. This is possibly a bigger problem for them as they have been polling a lot higher in Quebec and therefore is lower in the rest of the country.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Another Problem Liberal Candidate in Quebec

Yesterday I mentioned Richardo Lopez as a Liberal candidate in Quebec, I thought he would be gone soon. Seems he like he is not the only 'problem' Liberal in Quebec.

Former radio show host Simon Bedard has been asked to resign as a Liberal candidate in the Quebec City area.

The Liberals look to be in very serious trouble in Quebec.

Could Canadians be Looking for the Harper Secret Agenda?

There are numerous things ascribed to the Harper Secret Agenda - the one that is 'supposed' to happen if he manages to get a majority. There is one aspect that could be much more popular than most of the other political parties might be willing to accept. Reducing the federal government, reduce spending and getting out of provincial areas of responsiblity, and reducing taxation are all surprisly popular ideas with a large number of Canadians.

We can see how this played out in the Commonsense Revolution in Ontario, Restraint in BC, and the rise of the Reform Party in 1993. There are a lot of people out there that feel they pay too much for government and do not get enough benefit.

Honestly, it is hard to explain to most people what benefit they get from the federal government for the income taxes they pay. The best known federal programs are EI, OAP and CPP - they are all self funding and do not need taxes. Our military is next and most people are ok with what is spend on them. After this there are few clear beneficial programs most people can name. The reality is that almost all the government programs people see are from the provincial or municipal governments.

I raise this because I have had some interesting conversations with some NDP types. Seems they would be willing to endure a four year Harper government if it meant a fundamental downsizing of the money spent by the federal government. As one of them said "We need a major house cleaning in Ottawa and then start again with what is really needed from the ground up".

As one of my conversations was going on, I asked if the person would be willing to vote for the local Conservative candidate. The answer was "Yes, if it meant we would see a real change in Ottawa."

It reminds me of talking with a number of the people in the Reform party in the 1990s. Many of the older people had been with the CCF and NDP but felt that the party was not willing to do want it takes to fix things in Ottawa. This sentiment is not gone, it is still there and waiting for someone to tap into it. It is not only in BC and the rest of the west, but also 905 Ontario, and suburban and rural Quebec.

These areas represent about 180 of 308 ridings in Canada - enough to win a majority without any seats in the rest of the country. Danny Williams matters less in this election that people in Surrey BC or Newmarket Ontario.

Seat Projections from the UBC ESM

The current numbers from the UBC Election Stockmarket suggest the following outcome:

  • Conservatives 144
  • Liberals 85
  • NDP 46
  • Bloc 34
  • Others 3

Yes, this adds up to more than 308 seats, but that is the nature of the market from time to time, people are over estimating when they buy and under estimating when they sell. What this says to me is that one of the parties is going down and it has not yet hit the market.

The market has often underestimated the Bloc seats in past elections. To me the Bloc numbers look accurate this time, well at least for the moment. I think the error in the past comes from most of us involved in the market are anglos from the west and a lot of people out here simply do not understand the Bloc.

The NDP vote looks high, but the market is often better at predicting changes in the elections earlier than any other source. Layton may really be on the rise.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Some stuff I put together for Sean Holman and Public Eye Online.

What Next in this Election?

I am reasonably confident that Stephen Harper will get a majority in this election, but there are some other results beyond that which matter to Canada and I hope will happen.

  1. The Bloc looks like it is going down - I think this is a very good thing as they have been sitting on sits in Ottawa for no benefit to anyone in the country. The Bloc is no longer a revolt against the status quo, but more reminder some people do not like it. I would like to see them reduced fourth party status and less than 30 seats. There end is in sight, though they may linger on like the Creditistes did.
  2. It would benefit the country if the NDP became the official opposition. Clearly Layton has been the real opposition to the government for the last two and half years and a Harper majority needs a strong principled opposition that will hold their feet to the fire. The NDP is the only party that can do this. If they manage to get to official opposition, they will be the smallest since 1984.
  3. I would like to see the Liberals reduced to third or fourth party in the house. I would like to see them not win a single seat west of Ontario and be more or less shut out of Quebec. The Liberals are the sort of elitist government that I hate. They are awful in opposition. They are the party least guided by beliefs or principles. They have been bad for Canada for a long time now. We would have been better off with Conservatives and NDP holding power than the Liberals.
  4. I would like to see the Greens elect a few MPs. I think they will be very hard pressed to win any seats and then three or four is about it, but I believe they are a new sort of thinking in politics that is needed in Ottawa. They are neither left nor right in the traditional sense and show people that those labels are outdated.

Interesting Piece from Norman Spector

Norman Spector is blogging for the Globe and Mail during this election. He has a very interesting little tid bit today.

Seems that Ricardo Lopez, former Mulroney era PC MP, is running for the Liberals in Beauharnois-Salaberry. He ran in 2000 for the Canadian Alliance in Châteauguay.

Given his comments about Oka and his social conservative views on abortion, I suspect that the Liberals will drop him as a candidate in the next 24 to 48 hours.

His nomination shows to me how far the Liberals have fallen in Quebec. Beauharnois Salaberry was until 2006 reasonable competitive ground for the party, now they are irrelevant to the race in the riding.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

B.C. wineries told not to ship wines across provincial lines

There are stupid rules in this country dating from times long before most of us were born. I can not believe that this is an issue and that anyone is being allowed to spend time on this! This is the sort of dumbass mindless rules that have to be gotten rid of.


Frankly, every regulation and rule should be regularly reviewed and checked to see if the idea makes any sense at all. This sort of thing makes me think government is an over rated idea.
__________________________________________________________

Gordon Hamilton , Canwest News Service

Published: Tuesday, September 09, 2008

VANCOUVER - Authorities have clamped down on out-of province sales by British Columbia wineries to private customers, closing the door to a growing market niche for the province's popular wines.

The get-tough policy comes from the Manitoba and Ontario liquor control boards in response to wineries shipping directly to customers in those provinces.

Manitoba contacted the B.C. Liquor Control and Licensing Branch, prompting it to warn wineries that they must obey the 1928 Importation of Intoxicating Liquors Act.

Out-of-province sales to most provinces are illegal under the federal prohibition-era law. But sporadic enforcement and growing cross-country interest in wines from this province has tempted many wineries to ignore the antiquated law to satisfy customer demand.

It's the small, limited production wines that will be most impacted by the crackdown. Unless customers can drive to the winery, buying by phone or off the website is the only way to obtain the wine, said Scott Fraser, chairman of the B.C. Wine Institute. Because customers pay for shipping, it often costs them extra to get the highest-demand wines.

"Very often, it's our best products that are going out that way but in terms of total production or sales, it's a very small amount."

Fraser, who is with the Andrew Peller wine group, said one of the wineries in the company portfolio, Red Rooster, received a warning from Manitoba.

The Liquor Control Board of Ontario sent the second warning to Mission Hill Family Estate Winery.

Both wineries have stopped the private sales and Mission Hill has added a note to its website alerting customers to the restrictions.

But winemakers are unhappy that they are being denied access to the private-sales market. They can ship wine to customers in New York, but not in Ontario, said Mission Hill winery president Dan Zepponi.

The wine institute's board of directors is to raise the out-of-province ban at its board meeting later this week and the Canadian Vintners Association has mounted a lobby against the ban.

"It's a bit of a hot potato right now," said Shaun Everest, chair of the wine institute's marketing committee. "Our wines are growing in popularity and in demand. Making it less available for our customers is a step backwards.

"We would like people to be able to enjoy our wines right across the country," Everest said.

Other wineries are ending their out-of-province sales in response to the crackdown, he said.

"It's a winery-by-winery decision. I can't speak for everybody on how they plan to do it."

Everest, who is also chief financial officer at Tinhorn Creek, said a small percentage of sales are to out-of-province private customers. He said 15 to 20 per cent of the winery's sales are to out-of-province liquor control boards.

B.C. wine has grown to a $150-million-a-year business, but most of it is consumed within the province. By comparison, sales to the country's largest wine retailer, the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, amounted to $8.8 million last year.

LCBO spokesman Chris Layton said the board is obligated to ensure the law is obeyed.

"Whatever you think of a particular law, so be it. But as a government agency, we are required to remind our suppliers of the need to obey the law."

B.C. wine expert John Schreiner said the ban on interprovincial exports was originally to appease temperance movements. But today, he said, it's all about money.

Depending on the province, markups in provincial liquor stores can range from 50 per cent to 120 per cent, he said. Although the volume being shipped directly to private customers is small, Schreiner said liquor boards are getting nervous because of the growth both of the B.C. industry and of direct sales through websites.

"Liquor boards are getting a bit antsy because if the volume becomes substantial, they wouldn't be collecting their markups."

Under the Importation of Intoxicating Liquors Act, violators are subject to fines from $200 to $1,000 for the first two offences. After that, its imprisonment for six months to a year.

The act was passed after most provinces abandoned prohibition in the 1920s. Provincial liquor control boards, which were established to control liquor sales, enforce the act.



Poll of Polls

Taking the last five polls and averaging them, we get the following result:

  • Conservatives - 38.2
  • Liberals - 26.8
  • NDP - 17.0
  • Greens - 8.4
  • Bloc - 7.8

This is just a rough and dirty snapshot of the moment, but certainly indicates that already this election is not going to be the same as the last one. The Liberal party is running over 3 percentage points behind 2006 and lower than their worst result in 1984 when the party polled 28.02% of the vote and was reduced to 40 seats.

The other difference is with the Bloc. The Bloc is running about 2.5 percentage points below their worst results in the past and about 5 percentage points below their good results.

This election will have a dramatically different parliament come out of than last time. We should see about 110 to 140 new MPs elected this time. That is more than a 1/3 change in the house.

One Day to Lose My Election Sign

I know I live in a neighbourhood that is hostile to the Conservatives, but I did not expect to see my sign for my friend Jack McClintock disappear within 24 hours. In 2006 I managed to keep a blue sign on a street of orange in the same neighbourhood for the whole election. I am two blocks away, but on a street that is much busier and has a lot of walking traffic.

I have replaced and I will keep you informed if it manages to survive or if I have to replace it again.

It would not be an election unless some misguided supporters did not steal signs. Such a waste of resources for people to do this and fundamentally fascistic in nature. The sort of people that steal signs are the sort of people that in the 1930s brought Hitler to power in Germany - small scale political hooliganism and restriction of freedom of speech.

Monday, September 8, 2008

New Poll out Today

Segma released a new poll for the federal election. The news is really, really awful for the Liberals. The results look not too far off of my 'wild' prediction of yesterday.

The poll was of 1288 people with a margin of +-2.7%

  • Conservatives 43%
  • Liberals 25%
  • NDP 15%
  • Bloc 8%
  • Greens 7%
This is scary enough, but when one looks are the regional numbers, keeping in mind they are mus more volatile, things look desperate for the Liberals.

In Quebec the Liberals are a distant 3rd. In BC the Liberals are also running third. In Ontario they are behind the Conservatives by 13 points.

In Montreal - the heartland of the Liberals - they are tied with the Conservatives.

In Qubec City they are running behind the NDP and Greens.

In Toronto the Liberals are only marginally ahead of the Conservatives. In the rest of the province they are at 1/2 the Conservative support.

Dion i s behind Layton for best Prime Minister.

What I thought was a reaching prediction yesterday now feels very, very realistic. This looks like it will be election where the Federal Liberal party gets decimated.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Is Dion a Train Wreck for the Liberals?

The Liberals have been consistently polling behind the Conservatives in the last week. They are 8 to 13 points behind.

Dion is sounding unsure and he is stumbling in English. I see shades of Bob Skelly in BC - I remember how I felt watching the NDP's election chances die in front of my eyes.

In polls there is only one issue in which Dion leads the Conservatives, and that is the environment, but in the west he is trailing Harper. And when asked in a four way race, he falls far behind the Greens on the environment.

The Liberals are going into this election without the resources needed to fight the election. The party is heading into the election conceding that they can not win and trying to get votes on the basis that a majority Conservative government is dangerous and Harper should be held to a minority.

Jack Layton has decided the Liberals are not worth the effort.

Political wipeouts have become more and more common in Canada in the last generation.

I can not bring myself to go out on the total wipeout of the Liberals scenario, yet.

Here is my estimate of where I think the election will end up:

  • Conservatives 178
  • Liberals 54
  • Bloc 38
  • NDP 36
  • Ind 2
There is a trend happening now and we will see how it continues. The 1993 election started with the Liberals in the lead, but not dramatically so. The PCs were initially polling better than the Liberals are now.

One potential scenario is a result of:
  • Conservatives - 42%
  • Liberals - 20%
  • NDP - 19%
  • Greens - 10%
  • Bloc - 8%

If this is were the election heads to, then the seat distribution would look something like this:
  • Conservatives - 207
  • NDP - 40
  • Bloc - 38
  • Liberals - 18
  • Green - 3
  • Ind - 2
It is not unrealistic in the face of Liberal meltdown for Jack Layton to become the leader of the Official Opposition. It also becomes very realistic from Greens to be elected in this scenario.

Historically it has been the right in Canada that has been able to win the largest number of seats in elections - Dienfbaker in 1957 and Mulroney in 2004. Harper has a reasonable shot of getting an even bigger number of seats.