Ipsos Poll - Lib 47, NDP 39, Green 10

I can not find the details yet, this was an 800 person poll and reported in the Vancouver Sun.

Biggest change from the poll on March 24th is the dramatic drop in Green support and the shift of that support to the NDP.

• Liberals - 47%(+1)
• NDP - 39%(+4)
• Greens - 10%(-4)
• Others - 4(-1)

There is another poll out this morning in the Globe and Mail. This is from Innovative Research.

• Liberals - 46%
• NDP - 37%
• Greens - 11%
• Others - 6%

They apparently had a poll out last week as well where the only differences were that NDP at 39% and the Greens at 9%. Here is what was in the Globe about that.

The Innovative Research Group poll is an online survey of 753 panelists conducted from March 20 to April 15, with a second major survey of 610 panelists conducted from May 6 to May 9. A random sample of 600 with a 100 per cent response rate would have a margin of error of four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Factoring in both polls brings me to:

• Liberals - 46.4%(+1.2)
• NDP - 38.8%(-0.6)
• Green - 10.8(-0.9)
• Others - 4.3(+0.4)

I am feeling reasonably confident that these numbers will be an accurate reflection of the public will at the ballot box. As to the seats that the parties would win, I stand behind my prediction of the other day - 57 Liberal and 28 NDP

Two Days of Advance Polling

As of yesterday 5% of the registered voters in BC had voted. In 2005 after two days the number was 3.5%. The hours for advance voting are longer this time and there has been a trend happening to make it easier for people to vote other than on the general election day. Taking that into mind, I am not sure there is much to indicate more interest in voting this time around.

Within the province wide results, there huge variations in the ridings. The lowest turn out has been in Vancouver Hastings with 2.3%. The top end is in Boundary Similkameen with 8.77% having voted.

Comox Valley has had the most people vote with 3998 or 8.37% of the registered voters.

Top turnouts

1. Boundary Similkameen - 8.77%
2. Cariboo Chilcotin - 8.69%
3. Parksville Qualicum - 8.55%
4. Kootenay East - 8.47%
5. Comox Valley - 8.37%
6. Saanich North and the Islands - 8.21%
7. Fraser-Nicola - 8.11%
8. Stikine - 8.08%
9. Cariboo North - 7.43%
10. Surrey White Rock - 7.09%

The Bottom Ten

1. Vancouver Hastings - 2.30%
2. Richmond East - 2.39%
3. Vancouver Kensington - 2.42%
4. Powell River Sunshine Coast - 2.54%
5. Vancouver Kingsway - 2.57%
6. Surrey Tynehead - 2.60%
7. Abbotsford South - 2.75%
8. Surrey Whalley - 2.92%
9. Surrey Green Timbers - 2.93%
10. Richmond Centre - 3.21%

The HUGE variation in populations in BC ridings

At the bottom, the Stikine riding has 12 291 registered voters, at the top is Comox Valley with 47 772 registered voters.

This means a voter in the Stikine riding has an electoral voice that is four times as large as some in Comox.

Each riding should have 34 684 registered voters with a range of plus or minus 25% - 25 773 to 43 355.

There are a total of ten ridings that fall too low in population. All of them are the large rural ones in BC. They should only have six or seven MLAs total, not ten. When the next redistribution process begins in eight years time, the next commission will have to move three to four MLAs from rural BC to urban BC.

The are only three ridings that go over 43 355 registered voters.

These variations are too large and are not legally acceptable in Canada based on the Saskatchewan Reference.

Unless BC creates a set of rules for representation that takes something other than population in consideration, rural BC has to lose seats to urban BC.

Donations I made in this election

I had the money available to make donations this around in the election. I ended up giving money to 11 different candidates

• 5 Liberals
• 4 Greens
• 1 New Democrat
• 1 Independent - David Marley

They come values they all share are:
The are hardworking
They are not afraid of change for the better
They are positive people and not negative
They can think outside of the box
They believe BC can be a better a place than it is

I also gave a donation to the Yes to BC STV campaign.

There were about 30 other candidates I considered giving money to, but I dropped the ones that were obviously going to win or lose. I then decided I would back one candidate in any riding - I had a number of ridings were I had more than one candidate I liked. This still left me with more people that I could afford to support and I then pared down to the people I had a personal relationship with.

I believe it is important in politics to speak with our time and money and support the people willing to put themselves through the election process.

Dewey Beats Truman

The Angus Reid Strategies poll is out and here are the headline numbers

• Liberals - 44%
• NDP - 42%
• Green - 10%
• Others - 4%

This the poll I was part of the other day.

In general I am certain that the methodology ARS is using is what all polling companies will be using from now on. I was impressed the sort of questions they asked and the attempt to drill down to get detailed results. But I can not shake the feeling that this is something similar to the 1948 US election in which polling was part of the reason for the famous Tribune headline.

I believe there is an issue with who is in the sample for ARS.

Every polling company wants to correct in predicting the popular vote in the election because it is free advertising for them. Mustel, Ipsos and Angus Reid Strategies all are working to make sure their results are an accurate reflection of what the public is thinking. No one wants to be wrong. The problem is that in this election someone is going to be wrong.

Adding ARS into my mix gives me the following numbers:

• Liberals - 45.2%(-1.4)
• NDP - 39.2%(+2.0)
• Greens - 11.7%(-0.7)
• Others - 3.9%(-0.1)

I will be updating my numbers on the seats later today if I get enough of a break from work. What I will quickly note is that the numbers I am getting to is still showing the NDP down enough from 2005 to lose a significant number of seats.

On the ARS numbers alone we would still see a Liberal victory on May 12th. Defending a seat you are holding is easier than winning one and since the Liberals are defending more seats than the NDP, the are naturally set to win more seats. This effect is core to the cause the 1996 NDP "wrong winner" election.

The ARS poll may have the result of boosting the Liberal vote on election day. As long as it was looking like the NDP had no hope of winning a lot of right wing people who really can not stomach voting for the Liberals could stay home and not vote. The threat of an NDP government could boost the Liberal vote by one to two percentage points on election day.

BC-STV will significantly improve local representation for voters

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 7, 2009

BC-STV will significantly improve local representation for voters
Citizens' Assembly members dismayed by misrepresentation of BC-STV

Buick, B.C. - Wilf Chelle, former Citizens' Assembly member from Peace River North, scoffs at
the suggestion that first past the post provides better local representation than BC-STV.

"Under first past the post, local elections are rarely competitive. An MLA owes their job to the
party nominating committee and not the voter. Only 40 per cent of voters have an MLA of their
choice and iron-clad party discipline prevents MLAs from speaking up for their communities,"
says Chelle. "Its failures are obvious when compared to BC-STV, which has no loss in quantity of
representation and a big increase in quality."

In 2004, British Columbians from every corner of the province told the Citizens' Assembly that
local representation was not working. Their strong concerns, and the high value that British
Columbians place on local representation, guided the Assembly in choosing BC-STV - a system
that will give our communities a much stronger voice in Victoria.

"Citizens' Assembly members from the Lower Mainland and Victoria were very clear that they
looked to us on guidance to improve representation for smaller communities. If the solution had
been to retain first past the post in some parts of the province, we would have done so, but it
wasn't," says Gladys Brown, former Citizens' Assembly member from Midway. "We are all better
served by BC-STV."

BC-STV will allow MLAs to champion their community's needs, instead of being bound by party
discipline. Local elections become far more competitive since the voter has the final say over
which candidates best represent a party. This provides powerful incentive for MLAs to serve their
constituents. Far more voters will have an MLA of their choice, and when more votes count, the
rural parts of the district are not overpowered by the largest centre.

"BC-STV is the only way that communities up north will be heard," says Wolf Scholz, former
Citizens' Assembly member from Kitimat. "That's why I voted for it."

"Accountability comes from the fact that a majority of voters have an MLA of their choice
and because we can choose between candidates from the same party," says Chelle. "How come it's
only politicians who oppose this? Perhaps it is because with BC-STV our votes will actually
count."

"The suggestion that our current system provides effective local representation would be
laughable if the stakes weren't so high," says Chelle. "We urge British Columbians not to be taken
in by the misrepresentations of people trying to preserve the status quo."

-30-


The Citizens' Assembly Alumni is a group of former Citizens' Assembly members who are
committed to getting British Columbians the information they need about BC-STV. The Citizens'
Assembly on Electoral Reform was made up of 160 voters, a man and women from every
constituency in BC, randomly drawn from the voters list. They spent 11 months studying electoral
systems and listening to British Columbians before voting 95 per cent to recommend BC-STV to
the people of BC.

New Mustel poll out

The headline numbers are Liberals 47, NDP 38%, Greens 12%, Conservatives 3%. Details here.

This is a large shift from their last poll with the Liberals dropping from 52% to 47% and the NDP rising from 35% to 38%. This Mustel poll looks more like a lot of the other ones out there.

They have bigger sample this time - 852 respondents. There more details I would love to see but they are not there. They do not have any detailed regional breakdowns but mention a few pieces. Specifically the Conservatives are at 7% in the southern interior which is lower than I thought they would be, I think it is safe to say the Joe Cardoso is not in danger of being an MLA.

According to Sacha Peter the poll had 84% of the respondents intending to vote in the election. That is almost one in four people that answered they would be voting that lied to the pollster or Mustel had a very bad random sample.

The NDP is strongest on the island north of the Malahat and this could indicate the NDP might gain one seat from the Liberals by winning Comox Valley.

The Liberals are strong of the Metro Vancouver suburbs and the southern Interior. The strength in the 'burbs is very bad news for the NDP because they could lose a lot of seats in that area.

So what is the impact of this poll on my numbers? Minimal.

• Liberals - 46.6% (+0.5)
• NDP - 37.2% (+0.7)
• Greens - 12.4% (-0.5)
• Others - 3.8% (-0.7)

Impact seats I will have to work out, but I do not see much change from the totals in my riding by riding projection, though a couple of ridings may shift but with a net no change.

They also asked about BC STV and found 43% for First Past the Post and 33% for BC STV. These numbers are depressing to me as we have the chance to improve our society by using the best electoral system available. I can not sugar coat these numbers and have to accept that we are seeing the end of electoral reform in Canada for several generations.

Richard Stewart - Mayor of Coquitlam

I like Richard and think he is one of the people that brings decency and honour to the job of politician. He is currently mayor of Coquitlam but has had his back troubles back again.

I wish him a quick recovery and hope someday he finds someone or something that will deal with his ongoing pain. Even when the pain is getting to him, he puts in more effort than almost any politician I know.

Using Facebook Ads in this Election

I have been paying attention to what political ads I have been seeing on facebook. Given that more or less every sentient person in BC under age 40 is on facebook, and given that ads are cheap on facebook, I wonder why there is not a bigger push on facebook?

What I have seen so far

• Liberal Donny Van Dyk in Skeena
• Green Adam Saab in Victoria Beacon Hill
• Green Party in general
• Yes for BC STV

Other than that I have not seen any others in the last two days. Clearly Donny Van Dyk is putting the most money into it because I see his ad the most.

Interesting Post from Paul Holmes

Paul looks at domain names parties are using in BC and who gets it right and who does not.

Riding by Riding Prediction

The end result of this is

• Liberals 49
• NDP 21
• Uncertain 15

If the uncertain ones split evenly, this leaves us at:

• Liberals 57
• NDP 28

When looking at the polling numbers and not individual ridings, I end up with more Liberal seats. When factoring details of the ridings, the rising Liberal tide does not sink as many New Democrats.

Safe Liberal Seats

1. Abbotsford South
2. Abbotsford West
3. Abbotsford-Mission
4. Burnaby-Deer Lake
5. Chilliwack
6. Chilliwack-Hope
7. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
8. Fort Langley-Aldergrove
9. Kamloops-South Thompson
10. Kelowna-Lake Country
11. Kelowna-Mission
12. Langley
13. Nechako Lakes
14. North Vancouver-Lonsdale
15. North Vancouver-Seymour
16. Oak Bay-Gordon Head
17. Parksville-Qualicum
18. Peace River North
19. Peace River South
20. Prince George-Mackenzie
21. Prince George-Valemount
22. Richmond Centre
23. Richmond East
24. Richmond-Steveston
25. Saanich North and the Islands
26. Shuswap
27. Surrey-Cloverdale
28. Surrey-Panorama
29. Surrey-Tynehead
30. Surrey-White Rock
31. Vancouver-False Creek
32. Vancouver-Langara
33. Vancouver-Point Grey
34. Vancouver-Quilchena
35. Vernon-Monashee
36. West Vancouver-Capilano
37. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
38. Westside-Kelowna

Probable Liberal Seats

1. Boundary-Similkameen
2. Burnaby North
3. Burnaby-Lougheed
4. Comox Valley
5. Delta South
6. Kamloops-North Thompson
7. Kootenay East
8. Penticton
9. Port Moody-Coquitlam
10. Saanich South
11. Vancouver-Fraserview

Safe NDP Seats

1. Alberni-Pacific Rim
2. Columbia River-Revelstoke
3. Juan de Fuca
4. Kootenay West
5. Nanaimo-North Cowichan
6. Nelson-Creston
7. New Westminster
8. Powell River-Sunshine Coast
9. Surrey-Green Timbers
10. Surrey-Newton
11. Surrey-Whalley
12. Vancouver-Hastings
13. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
14. Victoria-Beacon Hill
15. Victoria-Swan Lake

Probable NDP Seats

1. Cowichan Valley
2. Esquimalt-Royal Roads
3. Fraser-Nicola
4. North Coast
5. Vancouver-Kingsway
6. Vancouver-West End

Battleground Ridings

1. Burnaby-Edmonds
2. Cariboo North
3. Cariboo-Chilcotin
4. Coquitlam-Maillardville
5. Delta North
6. Maple Ridge-Mission
7. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
8. Nanaimo
9. North Island
10. Port Coquitlam
11. Skeena
12. Stikine
13. Surrey-Fleetwood
14. Vancouver-Fairview
15. Vancouver-Kensington

If you have not tried BC STV....

please try this site for a simulation of the voting. It will show you how your vote is counted each step of the way.

The Longevity of Gordon Campbell

Should Gordon Campbell win next week, as it seems he will, that will make him only the fourth premier in BC history to have won a third mandate. He will also be the most left wing person to achieve this feat.

Only WAC Bennett, Bill Bennett and Richard McBride have won three or more elections in BC.

Angus Reid Strategies is Polling Today

I know because I was asked to be in the poll, here is the text of the email:

Dear Bernard von Schulmann

Make your opinion count by completing our latest survey today!

Click here to begin

You will receive $1 Survey Dollar in your account for completing this survey. We need your response before 11:59 pm PST on Wednesday, May 6, 2009.

If you are unable to click on the link above, please copy and paste the full URL below into your browser:


If you have any questions or comments about the Angus Reid Forum, please contact us at support@angusreidforum.com

Thank you!

The Angus Reid Forum Team

P.S. We need 250 members to complete this survey. Once we hit this number the survey will automatically close.

The poll was about the election and they did give me my set of candidates locally as my choices of who I would vote for. Lots of questions about the leaders, questions about the most important issues. They also asked about STV. If I have time, I will post some or all of the questions that they asked.

One of my issues about the polls has been the difference between people responding to the polls that they will vote and the number of people that would actually vote. They asked some questions around this, I liked their questions about how likely I am to vote and how regularly I have voted in the past.

They are only taking 250 online responses, I am curious how much bigger they will make the sample.

The question becomes, how representative am I of the general public? Is it realistic that I would be chosen to respond in this online poll? The odds of being in any given telephone poll is about one in four thousand, about a one in four hundred chance of being in a telephone poll during any given election.

The Debate

I did not manage to watch it live, I was on my way back from camping with the Scouts on the weekend and had a dinner to go to. I suspect a lot fewer people watched the debate this time around given the time it was on.

Who won? Carole James narrowly, but that is mainly because Campbell did not shine and Sterk did not manage to break through.

Will it matter to the election? I do not see the debate as having a lot of impact on the election. There is nothing memorable from the debate. The media coverage of the debate has been limited to Monday, a light day for media. There are no clips floating out there. It was a non-event.

The polling on the debate does not indicate there is enough of a result there to give the NDP any real bounce.

The only real outcome of the debate is to show that Carole James is better and more competent than the story that has been built around her as being incapable of being a leader.

Press Release from the Union of BC Indian Chiefs

I find the press release below interesting for several reasons.

1) In the last 20 years the UBCIC has been the home of the First Nations that do not believe in voting in elections.

2) They point out the three First Nation candidates running in the election. There is one each for the Liberals, Greens and NDP. Marion Wright for the Liberals in North Island and Troy Sebastian for the NDP in Kootenay East both have a chance to get elected.

3) The press release is clearly non-partisan in its approach. In the past the NDP has been the overwhelming home of First Nations voters in BC.

___________________________________________________

Coast Salish Territory/ North Vancouver –First Nations Chiefs are calling on all eligible First Nations voters to exercise this important right to have their voices heard by ensuring they are registered to vote and heading to the polls on election day.

"With 203 different First Nations across the province, and many thousands of eligible voters, our numbers can make a difference in many ridings throughout BC", said Grand Chief Doug Kelly, First Nations Summit Task Group member. "I encourage our communities to familiarize themselves with the platforms of each party and their local candidates to make an informed choice for themselves and their community."

"It is our children and grandchildren who have been forced, on a daily basis, to endure the appalling conditions of poverty of our communities. Therefore, it only makes sense that our youth take every advantage to vote in the upcoming provincial election," said Grand Chief Stewart Phillip of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs. "Whoever wins the election will play a significant part in influencing important decisions concerning our economic well-being in relation to revenue sharing and shared decision-making which underscores the need for the voices of our youth people to be heard.”

"This year marks the 60 year anniversary of First Nations receiving the right to vote in B.C. thanks to the efforts of the Native Brotherhood of BC." said BC Regional Chief of the Assembly of First Nations A-in-chut (Shawn Atleo). "1949 was also the year Frank Calder became the first Aboriginal elected to the legislature. It is heartening to see three First Nations candidates in this election following the trail blazed by Calder" he added.

Troy Sebastien (Ktunaxa) is running in the Kootenay-East riding for the NDP. Marion Wright (Kwakiutl Band) is contesting the North Island riding for the BC Liberals, and Liz Logan (Dene/Fort Nelson First Nation) is the Green candidate for Peace River North. Information on the provincial election and all parties taking part can be found at the Elections BC website at www.elections.bc.ca.

For more information please contact:

Grand Chief Stewart Phillip
President, UBCIC: 250-490-5314

Colin Braker
Communications Director Office: 604-926-9903

Ryneld Starr
Communications Officer
Office of the BC Regional Chief
Assembly of First Nations: 604-922-7733

New Environics Poll and Prediction of Election Outcome

This poll was released yesterday and it is not good for the NDP. The headline numbers are:

• Liberals - 47%
• NDP - 36%
• Greens - 12%
• Others - 5%

On the surface, these numbers look and feel closer to other polls and what my gut says is happening in the election, but there are some areas of significant concern for me with the poll. Sacha Peter beat me to a punch with a lot of the issues. His take on bias within the poll based on what questions are asked and in what order is also of concern to me.

One thing I will note is that they have 84% of the people in their sample saying they are decided voters and will be voting. As I have noted before, there is a major error within the polling process when they get the sort of responses rates that indicate 84% voter turn out.

In this poll their total sample size was 601 eligible voters. Only about 370 of the responses should have said they are voting and of that 370, at least some of them should be planning on voting but do not know how they will be voting. They had 508 decided voters in the poll. Something is fundamentally wrong here.

Based on the lack of details for the poll, some question about potential bias, but a reasonable sample size, I am assigning this poll a value of 1 in my calculations, the same as Angus Reid.

I am also downgrading the De Dutch Burger poll to 0.2. I am trying to come up with a formula to weight the polling numbers that came out of the debate as to who won etc, but I am having trouble making anything work as a measure of party support.

So based on my current calculations I come up with:

• Liberals - 46.1%
• NDP - 36.5%
• Greens - 12.9%
• Others - 4.5%

Oddly close to the Environics numbers.

Based on the above numbers, here is my projection of the election outcome and the ranges possible.

• Liberals - 65 (57 - 71)
• NDP - 20 (13 - 27)
• Greens - 0 (0-1)
• Independents - 0 (0-1)
  

The independent that might win is Vicki Huntington in Delta South, I do not believe at the moment that she will win as Wally Oppal seems to be shoring up the Liberals in the area.

As for the Greens, I still think Jane Sterk is a long shot to win in Esquimalt, there does not seem to be any other Greens that come close enough to matter in my calculations. Some of the Greens with real on the ground campaigns might be able to place a strong second this time around, I can think of about five strong Green campaigns this time around which is an increase from the last two elections.

We should see at least two more significant polls this week, both of which should be post debate. I do not believe the debate will have much impact on the polling numbers. Viewship was low and newspaper media coverage was in the Monday papers, the least read papers of the week.