Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Looking at the total vote in Quebec Elections

I thought it would interesting to look at the actual votes each party has received in Quebec elections since the 1970 election when the PQ first contested elections.

Elect ttl vote    Libs      PQ       CAQ/ADQ    QS
2012  4,363,756 1,361,618 1,393,540 1,180,756  263,233
2008  3,246,333 1,366,046 1,141,751   531,358  123,061
2007  3,970,618 1,313,664 1,125,546 1,224,412  144,418
2003  3,817,764 1,755,863 1,269,183   694,122 
1998  4,068,472 1,771,858 1,744,240   480,636  
1994  3,913,789 1,737,698 1,751,442   252,721 Equality
1989  3,408,909 1,702,808 1,369,067            125,726
1985  3,411,607 1,910,307 1,320,008     UN      
1981  3,600,097 1,658,753 1,773,237   144,070 Crediste 
1976  3,360,506 1,135,056 1,390,351   611,666  155,451
1973  2,970,978 1,623,734   897,809   146,209  294,706
1970  2,872,970 1,304,341   662,404   564,544  321,370
(bold indicates won the election, italic indicates won no seats)

First off, the 2012 election saw an increase of 1,117,423 votes from 2008, that is a dramatic increase in voter turn out and puts 2012 in line with where the total vote should be.   2008 was very low for Quebec standards.

The Liberal vote did not change from 2008 when they won a majority.   It is also not much different than their vote in 2007 when they won a minority.   In the '81, '85, '89, '94, and '98 elections the Liberals were in the range of 1.7 to 1.9 million votes, about 400,000 more than the last three elections.

The PQ vote only rose by 252,000 votes, less than 1/4 of the increased voter turnout meaning they only achieved 31.94% support but they are now the government.   This is the fourth election in which the PQ vote has been in the 1.1 to 1.4 million range, also down a lot from their peak performances.

The shift in 2007 to 2008 looks like 700,000 ADQ voters stayed home, 2012 650,000 of them seem to have returned.

If you look back to the 1970s there is a large block of votes going to centre right quasi nationalist parties.   The 1985 and 1989 elections where the only two elections where this block was not represented in the election and the voter turn out was down 300,000 to 400,000.  
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